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NFL – New England Patriots Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 14, 2007

The favorites to win the Super Bowl on the BetUS future wagering line are the New England Patriots. The NFL odds on them to win the Super Bowl right now are + 250 which makes them more than a solid bet since the next closest team is the San Diego Chargers at + 650.

But that’s not the only online betting opportunities regarding the New England Patriots. If NFL bettors spend their time dreaming only of a Super Bowl win by the Patriots, they may miss out on some very lucrative betting opportunities during the NFL regular season.

There are three very significant NFL betting trends concerning the New England Patriots. All three trends are significantly powerful because all three trends are qualified by real data.

Football Betting Trend Number 1 – The New England Patriots are 13 – 2 against the spread in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last three seasons.

Because this is a total point trend, it is important for football bettors to pay close attention to the total in every road game the Patriots are in this year. But, there are four road games where the total should, without a doubt, be between this 35.5 and 42 point spread.

10/14/07 – New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys shouldn’t be a scoring machine and, even with Randy Moss, the Patriots shouldn’t be either which means the line is a traditional NFL one 35.5 – 42.

10/21/07 – New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Another traditional line as the Patriots go down south to face their longtime rival. Expect this one to be around 38 points or so.

11/18/2001 – New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo is tough at home but there shouldn’t be any reason why this line should dip below 35.5. Buffalo’s offense will be better and the Patriots offense should score as they always do when facing Indianapolis (the game right before this one). That means another game that falls within our first trend.

12/29/2007 – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants: This game will depend on whether or not the Patriots need to win. If they don’t, then the over/under point spread may not be close to the 35.5 – 42 threshold.

Football Betting Trend Number 2 – The New England Patriots are 3 – 10 against the spread as favorites of more than a field goal off of a loss.

The potential for this trend depends solely on how strong of a team the New England Patriots are. This trend is so powerful because it is so rare. However, the following games could all potentially qualify under this trend.

9/23/07 – New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: The Patriots play San Deigo the week before.

10/7/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns: The Patriots are on the road versus Cincinnati the week before.

10/21/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: The Patriots are on the road after visiting Dallas the week before.

12/29/2007 – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants: The Patriots play Miami, always a difficult rivalry game, at home a week before their final game of the regular season versus the Giants.

Football Betting Trend Number 3 – The New England Patriots are 21 – 2 against the spread when the total posted is less than 37 points.

There are not a whole lot of plays this regular season for this trend, but the plays are absolutely real. There should be no way that the total in the two plays below is higher than 37 points. Again, because the data on this trend is so powerful, pay very close attention to over/under point spread totals in every Patriot’s game.

12/3/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens: If things work out as they should, this could be a potential game for home field advantage in the playoffs. That means the total, with two extremely well-coached defensive teams, should be less than 35.

12/9/2002 – New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers may be fighting for playoff contention in this game and the Patriots will be trying to win, but the defenses for both teams are just too solid for the point total to be anything more than 35.5 or 36.

By paying attention to rock solid trends regarding the New England Patriots, NFL bettors have the potential to make a lot of money on New England Patriot games.

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Posted in New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Betting Trends, NFL Gambling, NFL Odds, NFL Rankings, NFL Wagering, Week 2 NFL | 1 Comment »

Monday Night Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 10, 2007

 In their two match-ups last season, San Francisco and Arizona combined for 46 points and 61 points. As an underdog over the past two seasons, Arizona covered the OVER 16 out of 21 times. San Francisco has covered the OVER in five of their last six September games.  Arizona’s defense gave up 25.5 points per game (PPG) on the road last season, while San Francisco surrendered 25.7 PPG in all games.  If each team is to live up to their lofty expectations, it will be because of their potentially high powered offenses, not their mediocre defenses.  After considering all of this, it isn’t surprising that 72% of the early money is on the OVER (45.5).

Regards,

Posted in NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Gambling, NFL Odds, NFL Wagering | Leave a Comment »

NFL Wagering – Tennessee Titans NFL Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 7, 2007

When the Tennessee Titans don’t score, they don’t beat or cover against the spread (ATS).

The differences regarding the Tennessee Titans from last year to this year? Vince Young is back and you can be sure that every defense in the NFL took a good long hard look at how Young pulled rabbits out of his hat last year. LenDale White is going to start at running back and that’s a nice change. Eric Mould’s now plays wide receiver. Then, of course, there’s Adam “PacMan” Jones, their pseudo-star cornerback, who may never play football again.

What does this mean? For the Tennessee fan it means that you might not want to jump off the Vol’s bandwagon just yet – – even with their loss to Cal this past weekend – – because jumping on the Titan’s bandwagon just isn’t the thing to do this year as a football betting fanatic.

The football betting lines regarding the Tennessee Titans disfavor them beating or covering many spreads, when they happen to be favorites. Their lack of offensive production will certainly hurt them.

Trend: the Titans are 7 – 28 ATS when they fail to score twenty or more points in a game.

This is an extremely powerful trend and speaks as much to the Titan’s lack of offensive production as it does to the defenses the Titans play against. For that reason, they are more than a good bet to not sniff the Jaguars in Week 1 of the regular season. The NFL betting line right now on the game is Titans + 6.5.

Keeping the trend in mind – – what are the chances the Titans score 20 or more points against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL? Not very good. That makes the Jags a decent play.

The Titans then play the Colts at home. Could there be a reverse to the betting trend? Or, could the Titans beat the more than likely 7 points they will be getting against the spread against the Colts? Not likely. The Colts have a tough match-up against the New Orleans Saints in their first game. Win or lose, they will look to take some stuffing out of the Titans and their defense will be geared towards stopping Vince Young.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (projected line Colts – 7.5) = Wager on the Colts.

That could bring the Titans to minus 2 against the spread.

After their game against the Colts, they travel to New Orleans to play the Saints. This is one game where you will want to pay very close attention to the NFL betting line. The reason is that the Saints may not have a stellar record, the Titans most certainly won’t have a stellar record, and the Saints could be caught at home. The trend may not hold in this game.

Remember this trend when looking at Titan’s games – 7 and 28 ATS when scoring less than 20 points. Here then are some games during the season where the Titans may not score 20 points.

09/09/2007 – Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

10/28/2007 – Titans vs. Oakland Raiders

11/11/2007 – Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

11/19/2007 – Titans vs. Denver Broncos

12/23/2007 – Titans vs. New York Jets

Pay attention to every single NFL betting line in all of these games as the most significant betting trend regarding the Tennessee Titans has to do with them scoring 20 or less points in a game.

source

Posted in NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Gambling, NFL Odds, NFL Wagering, Tennessee Titans, Titans, Vince Young | Leave a Comment »

NFL Betting – AFC North Preview

Posted by zewkey on September 4, 2007

Knowledge is power and in the sports betting world you can never know enough. Here’s an AFC North preview for the NFL betting community and a look at key off-season moves that will directly affect football betting bankrolls.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens – The Ravens will rely mostly on their defense to get wins. Ed Reed, Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs are as solid as they come defensively. Last year, the Ravens allowed just 12.6 points per game which was the NFL’s best. The defense helped generate a 13-3 mark. If Baltimore is to post another solid straight up record they’ll need to manufacture the same type of play on defense, because the Raven’s offense will be stagnant.

New offensive coordinator Rick Neuheisel will have his hands full attempting to find points and coach Brian Billick will still call plays. The franchise hopes that the infusion of younger RB Willis McGahee, who replaced Jamal Lewis, will add to the offense.

The Ravens owned an against the spread record of 10-6 last season. Don’t expect a repeat money making performance this year, because the offense will struggle without Lewis.

Baltimore added: RB Willis McGahee. Rick Neuheisel promoted to offensive coordinator. Departed: RB Jamal Lewis, FB Ovie Mughelli, T Tony Pashos, G Edwin Mulitalo.

Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have one of the NFL’s strongest offensive lineups – not to mention the one at the police department. If this group of thugs can stay out of trouble, Cincinnati has a very legitimate chance of winning the division due-in-part to an offense that put up a solid 23.3 points per game last year.

Cincinnati was 8-8 straight up and 8-7-1 against the spread in 2006. Off field discipline and whether or not coach Marvin Lewis learned having a bunch of criminals is too much of a distraction will be key.

Cincinnati added: OL Alex Stepanovich. Departed: WR Kelley Washington, QB Anthony Wright. WR Chris Henry suspended for first eight games.

Pittsburgh Steelers – A lot of things went wrong in Ben Roethlisberger’s terrible 2006 season. Was it the motorcycle accident? Immaturity? The appendectomy? But what hurt most was that Pittsburgh didn’t have a real running game. RB Willie Parker will be key to the Steelers offense. If Parker can carry the rock successfully it’ll create an open passing game for Roethlisberger who should have a stronger season.

The Steelers went 8-8 straight up and 7-8-1 against the spread in 2006. If Pittsburgh is to better these numbers they’ll need to improve on both sides of the ball from last year.

Pittsburgh added: OL Sean Mahan, RB Kevan Barlow. Former Minnesota defensive coordinator Mike Tomlin hired as head coach. Former Cleveland offensive coordinator Bruce Arians hired as offensive coordinator. Ken Anderson hired as QBs coach. Departed: C Jeff Hartings.

Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns – People in Cleveland love the pick of homeboy QB Brady Quinn, but the problem is that the Browns still don’t have a quarterback with enough experience to mentor their three young guys (Quinn, Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson) who are competing for the top job. Preseason play clearly indicated Quinn will be the man under center on opening day – but head coach Romeo Crennel has decided to site the Notre Dame star for the first game, at least.

The addition of RB Jamal Lewis will help the Browns immensely by adding balance to their offense that posted a bleak 14.9 points per game last year.

The Browns were a dismal 4-12 straight up last year and 7-8-1 against the spread. There’s now hope in Cleveland but be careful investing on them, because Quinn will need a few years to grow into a winning quarterback.

Cleveland added: RB Jamal Lewis, QB Brady Quinn (Rookie), OL Eric Steinbach, OL Seth McKinney, T Joe Thomas (Rookie), WR Tim Carter. Hired former San Diego tight ends coach Rob Chudzinski as offensive coordinator. Departed: RB Reuben Droughns, WR Dennis Northcutt, FB Terrelle Smith, OL Joe Andruzzi.

The 2007 NFL betting season is here in full force! If you like to bet on the NFL, you are in the best possible place for online betting. The BetUS sportsbook has NFL odds up on a ton of futures, and you will also find NFL lines up for early games as well. Join BetUS today and we’ll help guide you right through to Super Bowl XLII and beyond!

PreSeason Betting Tips

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Chiefs say Holmes, back on field, won’t be featured back

Posted by zewkey on August 9, 2007

RIVER FALLS, Wis. — Kansas City Chiefs running back Priest Holmes has a message for holdout All-Pro Larry Johnson: If you don’t want the job, I’ll take it.

I mean, we have what’s called ‘making it rain.’ We have the dogfighting, we have so many things that have cast a negative light on the NFL. This is just a great story to show guys that regardless of what situation you’re in, you can persevere.

Holmes

Holmes, a three-time Pro Bowler, turns 34 in October and has been out of football since 2005 after suffering what many figured was a career-ending injury. The Chiefs are not planning on him being anything more than a situational back, if he returns to the field at all.

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But he created a stir in July with his surprise return and said this week his comeback attempt is going well as he works himself back into game shape.

He’s still on the physically unable to perform list while veteran Michael Bennett and rookie Kolby Smith take most of the snaps at running back. But on Tuesday, he was on the practice field in pads, taking handoffs and absorbing hits from assistant coaches using blocking pads.

Afterward, he said he’s ready to fill the 27-year-old Johnson’s shoes — at least financially.

“Somebody has to get the money,” he said. “Hey, if L.J. wants to leave the money out there, guess I’m going to take it. If he wants to come get it, it’s rightfully his to take. He’s earned it. But if he chooses not to come back, well, somebody has to take it. Why won’t it be me?”

Johnson has been a no-show at camp as he seeks an extension to the seven-year contract he inked in 2003, which he can void down to a five-year deal after the final game of the 2007 season because of playing time incentives.

Both head coach Herm Edwards and Chiefs president Carl Peterson have said Holmes will not be their feature back.

“If he’s able to come back, he understands and accepts the fact that he would have a different role than when he was the starter,” Edwards said.

Johnson is demanding compensation in the range of $28 million guaranteed, insisting he be paid as much as league MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. Johnson is scheduled to earn $1.7 million this season and is being fined more than $14,000 for every day he misses.

One of the NFL’s top runners until his injury, Holmes rushed for a team-record 5,933 yards after signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2001. He scored 27 touchdowns in 2003, then an NFL record.

He’s been on the physically unable to perform list since a devastating tackle by San Diego’s Shawne Merriman on Oct. 30, 2005, left him with head and neck trauma. After extensive tests, doctors warned of a possibility of further injury, perhaps even paralysis — a danger that may still lurk.

“This is about perseverance and having a great story to tell,” Holmes said. “I think that all the valuable years I’ve put into my tank, there’s a lot in me still.”

Some were dubious about Holmes’ motives for returning, especially in light of Johnson’s holdout.

“‘Dubious’ is a great word,” Holmes said. “But dedication is a little bit more defined in concrete. I mean, we have what’s called ‘making it rain.’ We have the dogfighting, we have so many things that have cast a negative light on the NFL. This is just a great story to show guys that regardless of what situation you’re in, you can persevere.”

Holmes, who received a clean bill of health from Kansas City’s doctors before reporting to camp, last played a full season in 2003. He played in eight games in 2004 before a hip injury and then played in seven games in 2005 before the helmet-to-helmet hit from Merriman.

Holmes said seeing highlights of himself this summer during a football camp made him start thinking about returning to the Chiefs.

“Once I saw myself, the first thing I looked at it was as if I was a fan,” he said. “I said, ‘Man, I did that? Oh, that’s a nice run. Oh, I love that touchdown move right there. I got to do that again.’

“I haven’t had any setbacks so far,” he added. “The biggest thing with football is taking all the contact and then continuing to run.”

Chiefs guard Brian Waters, an eight-year veteran and a good friend of Holmes, said players are keeping an eye on the running back’s progress.

“We know just by watching him run, he’s still got a lot of his abilities,” Waters said. “His quickness is strong. It’s going to be a mental thing, for sure, but we’ll see. I’ve seen him come back from serious injuries before and have a great season, so nothing would surprise me coming from that man.”

Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press

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