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NFL – New England Patriots Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 14, 2007

The favorites to win the Super Bowl on the BetUS future wagering line are the New England Patriots. The NFL odds on them to win the Super Bowl right now are + 250 which makes them more than a solid bet since the next closest team is the San Diego Chargers at + 650.

But that’s not the only online betting opportunities regarding the New England Patriots. If NFL bettors spend their time dreaming only of a Super Bowl win by the Patriots, they may miss out on some very lucrative betting opportunities during the NFL regular season.

There are three very significant NFL betting trends concerning the New England Patriots. All three trends are significantly powerful because all three trends are qualified by real data.

Football Betting Trend Number 1 – The New England Patriots are 13 – 2 against the spread in a road game where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last three seasons.

Because this is a total point trend, it is important for football bettors to pay close attention to the total in every road game the Patriots are in this year. But, there are four road games where the total should, without a doubt, be between this 35.5 and 42 point spread.

10/14/07 – New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys shouldn’t be a scoring machine and, even with Randy Moss, the Patriots shouldn’t be either which means the line is a traditional NFL one 35.5 – 42.

10/21/07 – New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: Another traditional line as the Patriots go down south to face their longtime rival. Expect this one to be around 38 points or so.

11/18/2001 – New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Buffalo is tough at home but there shouldn’t be any reason why this line should dip below 35.5. Buffalo’s offense will be better and the Patriots offense should score as they always do when facing Indianapolis (the game right before this one). That means another game that falls within our first trend.

12/29/2007 – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants: This game will depend on whether or not the Patriots need to win. If they don’t, then the over/under point spread may not be close to the 35.5 – 42 threshold.

Football Betting Trend Number 2 – The New England Patriots are 3 – 10 against the spread as favorites of more than a field goal off of a loss.

The potential for this trend depends solely on how strong of a team the New England Patriots are. This trend is so powerful because it is so rare. However, the following games could all potentially qualify under this trend.

9/23/07 – New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: The Patriots play San Deigo the week before.

10/7/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Cleveland Browns: The Patriots are on the road versus Cincinnati the week before.

10/21/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins: The Patriots are on the road after visiting Dallas the week before.

12/29/2007 – New England Patriots vs. New York Giants: The Patriots play Miami, always a difficult rivalry game, at home a week before their final game of the regular season versus the Giants.

Football Betting Trend Number 3 – The New England Patriots are 21 – 2 against the spread when the total posted is less than 37 points.

There are not a whole lot of plays this regular season for this trend, but the plays are absolutely real. There should be no way that the total in the two plays below is higher than 37 points. Again, because the data on this trend is so powerful, pay very close attention to over/under point spread totals in every Patriot’s game.

12/3/2007 – New England Patriots vs. Baltimore Ravens: If things work out as they should, this could be a potential game for home field advantage in the playoffs. That means the total, with two extremely well-coached defensive teams, should be less than 35.

12/9/2002 – New England Patriots vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers may be fighting for playoff contention in this game and the Patriots will be trying to win, but the defenses for both teams are just too solid for the point total to be anything more than 35.5 or 36.

By paying attention to rock solid trends regarding the New England Patriots, NFL bettors have the potential to make a lot of money on New England Patriot games.

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Posted in New England Patriots, NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Betting Trends, NFL Gambling, NFL Odds, NFL Rankings, NFL Wagering, Week 2 NFL | 1 Comment »

Monday Night Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 10, 2007

 In their two match-ups last season, San Francisco and Arizona combined for 46 points and 61 points. As an underdog over the past two seasons, Arizona covered the OVER 16 out of 21 times. San Francisco has covered the OVER in five of their last six September games.  Arizona’s defense gave up 25.5 points per game (PPG) on the road last season, while San Francisco surrendered 25.7 PPG in all games.  If each team is to live up to their lofty expectations, it will be because of their potentially high powered offenses, not their mediocre defenses.  After considering all of this, it isn’t surprising that 72% of the early money is on the OVER (45.5).

Regards,

Posted in NFL, NFL Betting, NFL Gambling, NFL Odds, NFL Wagering | Leave a Comment »

NFL Wagering – Tennessee Titans NFL Betting Trends

Posted by zewkey on September 7, 2007

When the Tennessee Titans don’t score, they don’t beat or cover against the spread (ATS).

The differences regarding the Tennessee Titans from last year to this year? Vince Young is back and you can be sure that every defense in the NFL took a good long hard look at how Young pulled rabbits out of his hat last year. LenDale White is going to start at running back and that’s a nice change. Eric Mould’s now plays wide receiver. Then, of course, there’s Adam “PacMan” Jones, their pseudo-star cornerback, who may never play football again.

What does this mean? For the Tennessee fan it means that you might not want to jump off the Vol’s bandwagon just yet – – even with their loss to Cal this past weekend – – because jumping on the Titan’s bandwagon just isn’t the thing to do this year as a football betting fanatic.

The football betting lines regarding the Tennessee Titans disfavor them beating or covering many spreads, when they happen to be favorites. Their lack of offensive production will certainly hurt them.

Trend: the Titans are 7 – 28 ATS when they fail to score twenty or more points in a game.

This is an extremely powerful trend and speaks as much to the Titan’s lack of offensive production as it does to the defenses the Titans play against. For that reason, they are more than a good bet to not sniff the Jaguars in Week 1 of the regular season. The NFL betting line right now on the game is Titans + 6.5.

Keeping the trend in mind – – what are the chances the Titans score 20 or more points against one of the best defensive teams in the NFL? Not very good. That makes the Jags a decent play.

The Titans then play the Colts at home. Could there be a reverse to the betting trend? Or, could the Titans beat the more than likely 7 points they will be getting against the spread against the Colts? Not likely. The Colts have a tough match-up against the New Orleans Saints in their first game. Win or lose, they will look to take some stuffing out of the Titans and their defense will be geared towards stopping Vince Young.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (projected line Colts – 7.5) = Wager on the Colts.

That could bring the Titans to minus 2 against the spread.

After their game against the Colts, they travel to New Orleans to play the Saints. This is one game where you will want to pay very close attention to the NFL betting line. The reason is that the Saints may not have a stellar record, the Titans most certainly won’t have a stellar record, and the Saints could be caught at home. The trend may not hold in this game.

Remember this trend when looking at Titan’s games – 7 and 28 ATS when scoring less than 20 points. Here then are some games during the season where the Titans may not score 20 points.

09/09/2007 – Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

10/28/2007 – Titans vs. Oakland Raiders

11/11/2007 – Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

11/19/2007 – Titans vs. Denver Broncos

12/23/2007 – Titans vs. New York Jets

Pay attention to every single NFL betting line in all of these games as the most significant betting trend regarding the Tennessee Titans has to do with them scoring 20 or less points in a game.

source

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